solar-flare-utac 1.0.0

Solar flare magnetic avalanche threshold — GenesisAeon Package 21

solar-flare-utac

GenesisAeon Package 22 — Solar Flare Magnetic Avalanches as UTAC System

[](https://github.com/genesisaeon/solar-flare-utac/actions/workflows/ci.yml) [](https://doi.org/10.1051/0004-6361/202449012)

Solar flares modelled as magnetic UTAC avalanches — calibrated against Solar Orbiter (2026), GOES X-ray data (1975–2026), and Velasco Herrera et al. (2026, JGR Space Physics).

Key result: Γ_solar ≈ 0.014 (ultra-low CREP) → most hair-trigger system in the atlas.

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Central Result

Γ_solar = arctanh(0.03) / 2.2 ≈ 0.014

Solar active regions occupy the ultra-sensitive (ultra-low CREP) end of the GenesisAeon cross-domain criticality spectrum — the lowest Γ of any system in the atlas. Tiny CREP fluctuations produce giant energy releases, explaining why deterministic solar flare prediction is so notoriously difficult.

CREP Criticality Spectrum

Domain	Package	Γ	η	Character
Solar Flare	P21	0.014	1%	Ultra-sensitive
Cygnus X-1 Jet	P17	0.046	5%	Hair-trigger
Amazon Rainforest	P19	0.116	12%	Fragile
AMOC Ocean	P18	0.251	50%	Homeostatic
Neural Criticality	P20	0.251	50%	Homeostatic (!)
BTW Sandpile	P22	0.296	58%	Robust SOC
Manna Sandpile	P22	0.376	72%	Dense SOC
ERA5 Arctic	P01	0.920	99%	Near-saturated

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Physical Mapping to UTAC

UTAC symbol	Solar quantity
H(t)	Normalised magnetic free energy ∈ [0, 1]
K	E_max ≈ 10³² J (active region energy ceiling)
H*	Quiescent fixed point ≈ 0.10 K
r	Flux-emergence buildup rate ≈ 0.06 hr⁻¹
σ	CREP coupling = 2.2
Γ(t)	CREP tensor (C, R, E, P) → Γ_solar ≈ 0.014

Flare trigger: when H > H_threshold = 0.60 AND Γ > θ_PT ≈ 0.014, the magnetic current sheet becomes unstable → reconnection cascade → "magnetic avalanche" (Solar Orbiter A&A 2026).

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Installation

pip install solar-flare-utac
# or
uv add solar-flare-utac
# development
pip install -e ".[dev]"

Quickstart

from solar_flare_utac import SolarFlareUTAC

model = SolarFlareUTAC(seed=42)
state  = model.run_cycle(duration_hours=72)

print(state['crep_state'])    # {C, R, E, P, Gamma}
print(state['utac_state'])    # {H, dH_dt, H_star, K_eff}
print(state['flare_count'])   # flares in this cycle

window = model.predict_flare_window(horizon_days=3)
record = model.to_zenodo_record()

CLI

# Run a 72-hour simulation cycle
solar-utac run --duration 72 --active-region AR3000

# Flare probability window forecast
solar-utac flare-window --horizon 7

# Print the full CREP Criticality Spectrum
solar-utac gamma-crep-spectrum

# Validate against benchmark targets
solar-utac benchmark

# Export Zenodo metadata record
solar-utac zenodo-export

Integration in genesis-os

from genesis_os import GenesisOS
os = GenesisOS()
solar = os.load_package(21)
results = solar.run_cycle(duration_hours=72)
print(f"Γ_solar = {results['crep_state']['Gamma']:.4f}")

Diamond-Template Contract

All GenesisAeon packages implement the same five-method interface:

model.run_cycle(duration_hours=72)  → dict
model.get_crep_state()              → {C, R, E, P, Gamma}
model.get_utac_state()              → {H, dH_dt, H_star, K_eff}
model.get_phase_events()            → list[dict]   # each flare = one event
model.to_zenodo_record()            → dict

Repository Structure

solar-flare-utac/
├── src/solar_flare_utac/
│   ├── system.py          # SolarFlareUTAC — Diamond interface + Ethics Gate
│   ├── active_region.py   # Magnetic free energy ODE (UTAC)
│   ├── reconnection.py    # Reconnection instability threshold (Syrovatsky)
│   ├── crep_solar.py      # Solar CREP tensor (C, R, E, P → Γ)
│   ├── goes_loader.py     # GOES X-ray flux loader + synthetic generator
│   ├── superflare.py      # Power-law flare statistics (SOC)
│   ├── geomagnetic.py     # Dst storm impact model
│   ├── benchmark.py       # Validation vs. GOES catalog + Orbiter
│   ├── cli.py             # Typer CLI
│   └── constants.py       # All physical and model constants
├── data/
│   ├── goes_xray_annual_stats.yaml
│   └── flare_catalog_summary.yaml
├── notebooks/
│   ├── 01_solar_utac_overview.ipynb
│   ├── 02_goes_crep_analysis.ipynb
│   ├── 03_flare_cascade.ipynb
│   └── 04_gamma_solar_calibration.ipynb
└── tests/
    ├── test_diamond_interface.py
    ├── test_active_region.py
    ├── test_reconnection.py
    └── test_superflare.py

Benchmark

Validated against GOES catalog and Solar Orbiter data.

Target	Value	Tolerance
Γ_solar	0.014	±0.005
X-class energy [J]	10³²	log ±0.5
Power-law index α	1.8	±0.1
Reconnection timescale	10 min	±30%
X-class flares/cycle	150	±20%

Falsifiable Prediction

Next X5+ flare window in 2026 Q3 (southern hemisphere active region peak, per Velasco Herrera 2026). Γ_solar will exceed θ_PT during this period. Testable against GOES real-time monitoring at SWPC.

References

• Solar Orbiter / A&A 2026 — magnetic avalanche mechanism
• Velasco Herrera et al. 2026, JGR Space Physics — 47-year superflare dataset
• Thoen Faber et al. 2025 — SST/CHROMIS high-resolution flare ribbons (140–200 km)
• ESA CryoSat + Swarm 2026 — X-class geomagnetic storm measurements

Citation

DOI will be assigned automatically on first GitHub Release once Zenodo–GitHub integration is enabled for this repo. Until then, cite the parent GenesisAeon whitepaper DOI linked at the top of this README (10.5281/zenodo.19645351).

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Part of the GenesisAeon cross-domain CREP criticality atlas. Code: GPLv3-or-later · Docs & Data: CC BY 4.0 · seed=42 · numpy/scipy/matplotlib