timesift (Python)

The Python side of timesift. It fits and compares representations of time-varying data against a prediction target, from the same one call the R package offers, and it answers to ../inst/spec/representation.md, the document both implementations answer to.

import timesift as ts

fit = ts.timesift(plots, logger, y="sp_*", id="plot_id", time="datetime",
                  models=[ts.elasticnet(), ts.forest()],
                  sift=ts.grains("day", "week", "month"),
                  resampling=ts.cv(v=5))
print(ts.summary(fit))

timesift  80 targets, 4 responses, 5-fold random CV, tss

candidate                    mean    won  responses
forest / week               0.503      0  separate
elasticnet / month          0.504      0  separate
forest / month              0.507      1  separate
elasticnet / day            0.515      1  separate
elasticnet / week           0.528      1  separate
forest / day                0.535      1  separate
ensemble                    0.571      -

weights  elasticnet / week 0.37   elasticnet / day 0.22   forest / month 0.17   elasticnet / month 0.12   forest / day 0.09   forest / week 0.04

targets and series are mappings of column name to array, which a data frame satisfies. y, x and static are selections over their own table: a column name, a list of names, a glob such as "sp_*", or a function of a name. fit.predict(targets, series) rebuilds each member's representation for the new rows and combines them, and type="binary" cuts each response at a threshold learned from the fit's own out-of-fold predictions.

What is here

• timesift, Timesift: the entry point and the fitted run, carrying its candidates, its scores, its out-of-fold predictions and its stack.
• native, grain, multigrain, lookback and the sets grains and lookbacks: what a representation is, before any record has been read. build_representation turns one into the array a learner is handed.
• grain_matrix, lookback_matrix, calendar_channels, bind_channels, feature_matrix, timesift_set: the arrays themselves, reachable without the fitting layer. coverage is the count of readings per unit and bin, which is where a refused record's gaps are read off.
• cv, grouped_cv, fold_map, read_folds, scorable_cells: the split, and which cells admit a score.
• elasticnet, stepwise, tree, forest, mlp, cnn, rescnn (torch), and Learner for one of your own. train_control carries how any of the neural ones is trained.
• ensemble, ensemble_fit, ensemble_combine, ensemble_weights: the stack over the candidates' out-of-fold predictions.
• tss, roc_auc, kappa_score, model_agreement, decision_threshold: the metrics.
• grain_ladder, select_grain, paired_contrast, tss_inflation, implied_skill: fitting across a set of grains on its own, comparing two arms cell by cell, and reading a level that was taken at its own best threshold.
• occlusion: hold each bin or each channel back and rescore, without refitting. It takes a run or a ladder.
• register_learner, register_metric, register_response: the three registries the fitting path reads.

The mixed-model grain contrast the R side offers as grain_contrasts() has no counterpart here. The contract's last section carries the rest of what each language holds.

The binning and the reduction are not written here. They are ../src/ts_core.cpp, the same implementation the R package compiles, reached through the _core extension that ../CMakeLists.txt builds with nanobind. What is written here is the boundary: resolving the columns, resolving the zone, and putting the result into a TimesiftMatrix.

At runtime the package needs numpy alone. A learner that needs a package declares it and stops without it.

The time zone

grain_matrix takes a tz argument. Left at None the instants are taken as already expressed in the calendar to bin by, which is what a zone-free datetime64 says. Given a zone name they are read as UTC and binned by that zone's clock, which is what the R side does for a series carrying a tzone. The same instants and the same zone give the same answer in both languages, and digests.csv carries zone rows that pin it.

A time column that carries a zone of its own names the calendar the same way, so a pandas column in Europe/Vienna bins by Vienna days without being told to. Naming a different zone in tz beside one the column carries is an error rather than a silent choice between the two.

The fold map crosses the language boundary; the fold builder does not

fold_map draws on numpy's random stream and the R side draws on R's, so the same seed gives different maps. Where both languages must see identical splits, build the map once and read it in the other with read_folds. The map is an artifact, like the response and the representation.

Two rules govern this directory

• tests/oracle.py is implemented from the spec, not transcribed from the R source. It is the NumPy representation as it was written before the two languages shared a core, kept because reading the R code and copying it would reproduce its bugs and hide its assumptions. Nothing imports it outside the suite; it exists so the shared core is checked against an implementation that shares none of its code.
• A digest mismatch is a bug, never a fixture to regenerate. Regenerating fixtures happens on the R side, deliberately, in its own commit, and only when the spec changed with it.

The project directory is the repository root, because a source distribution cannot reach above itself and the shared sources are not vendored into a second copy. Build and test from there:

pip install -e ".[test,torch]"
pytest